By ADAM IHUCHA
The South Sudan’s
bid to join the East African Community is likely to be flopped, thanks to the current brink of civil war ‘along ethnic lines.
Initially, the fate of Juba admission into EAC trading bloc
would have been known in April next year, but now officials say insecurity is likely to delay its accession bid.
“The current internal crisis in South Sudan does not augur
well with its bid for membership in the EAC” says the EAC secretariat
Spokesperson, Owora Richard Othieno.
Mr Owora says that adherence to universally acceptable
principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human
rights and social justice are among the criteria Juba should fulfill.
The EAC council of ministers constituted a High Level
Negotiations Team that included three Members from each partner state to start
the negotiations by October 2013 – March 2014.
“We are calling for immediate restraint and dialogue in the
on-going conflict in South Sudan between the two warring parties” he said, “We
have already scheduled the first Negotiation meeting with South Sudan for 13 -
22 January 2014 in Arusha”.
The roadmap shows that the second and third meetings would
be held in March and April 2014 respectively.
Ideally, the HLNT shall report the outcome of the
negotiations to the Summit of the EAC Heads of State in April 2014.
“We pray that this programme will not be jeopardized by the
ongoing internal conflict in that country” Mr Owora explained.
The negotiation exercise with South Sudan will cost the EAC
trading bloc $82,000.
Political analysts are warning that the fighting that
resulted from an attempted coup could turn into a full-scale civil war unless
efforts are made to restore peace and harmony.
“This will not make it any easier for the country when
it comes to joining the bloc because the EAC partners will start questioning
its political stability and the border security,” said a Kenyan political
analyst, who did not want to be named.
“In case the war persists and a new regime takes over, East
African countries might decide to put on hold the process until things settle
down,” he added.
This, he said, is because the EAC partners would not want to
engage a new government they are not sure about.
The negotiations by the team will establish whether South
Sudan is committed to addressing all identified challenges in line with the
criteria for admission to the EAC.
South Sudan has to meet the six conditions of acceptance
into the Community as set out in the EAC Treaty which include: Adherence to
universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of
law and observance of human rights and social justice.
Senior lecturer at Tumaini University Moshi, Dr. Gasper
Mpehongwa says that though Juba accession to the EAC is inevitable, but it
should be delayed over insecurity.
Dr. Mpehongwa was of the view that the EAC ought to support South
Sudan - the prospective member state--to attain the lasting stability before
being admitted into the bloc.
“The EAC should not rush the process to admit South Sudan
because in so doing the country’ insecurity would be a burden to the community,
” he explained.
Criteria
Other criterions include potential contribution to the strengthening of integration within the EA region; geographical proximity to and inter-dependence between it and the Partner States.
Other criterions include potential contribution to the strengthening of integration within the EA region; geographical proximity to and inter-dependence between it and the Partner States.
In the list there are establishment and maintenance of
a market driven economy; and social and economic policies being compatible with
those of the Community as articulated in article 3 (3) of the EAC treaty.
The EAC verification report indicates that South Sudan meets four of the six criteria above.
The EAC verification report indicates that South Sudan meets four of the six criteria above.
These include geographical proximity, market driven economy,
compatibilities in social and economic policies and potential contribution to
the strengthening of integration.
This is a country of distinctive capabilities, huge opportunities, the new country, has a land size of about 239,285 sq miles, slightly larger than the EAC economic powerhouse of Kenya. Yet it has a population of 8.5 million.
Juba provides a huge market for Kenya and Uganda have more than quadrupled their exports in goods and services to Southern Sudan in the last 10 years. Uganda exports over $200million, Kenya over $180million.
It has 85 percent of Sudan's oil output -- estimated at about 520,000 barrels per day -- this offers the EAC a unique opportunity to have South Sudan as a partner state in the region's Common Market and Monetary Union.
In terms of geographical and geopolitical location, South Sudan has potential to link the EA region to North Africa, Central Africa and other continental sub regions, the report indicates.
With regard to the geographical proximity and interdependence between Juba and EAC Partner States – the report says, the South Sudan shares borders with Kenya and Uganda.
“There is a sense of belonging and attachment to EAC socially, historically, culturally and geographically,” reads the EAC report.
On interdependence with EAC member states, the Juba has got good working relationships with them and cooperation programmes at bilateral level.
Most of the policies and strategies have borrowed substantially from the individual EAC Partner States, the report indicates, adding that in some cases, Memorandum of understanding (MoUs) with EAC Partner State institutions exist.
With regard to South Sudan’s readiness to join the EAC Customs Union and the Common Market – is still uncertain.
Though institutions relating to finance, trade and macro-economic planning have been established, but EAC experts say, however, some of the institutions are operational while others are nascent or not yet operational.
For instance, so far there is no revenue authority in place and the existing directorate of Customs is still weak in terms of capacity, automation and implementation of international instruments.
However, there are some institutions established by law, which are yet to be operationalized such as Investment Authority and National Bureau of Standards, among others.
This is a country of distinctive capabilities, huge opportunities, the new country, has a land size of about 239,285 sq miles, slightly larger than the EAC economic powerhouse of Kenya. Yet it has a population of 8.5 million.
Juba provides a huge market for Kenya and Uganda have more than quadrupled their exports in goods and services to Southern Sudan in the last 10 years. Uganda exports over $200million, Kenya over $180million.
It has 85 percent of Sudan's oil output -- estimated at about 520,000 barrels per day -- this offers the EAC a unique opportunity to have South Sudan as a partner state in the region's Common Market and Monetary Union.
In terms of geographical and geopolitical location, South Sudan has potential to link the EA region to North Africa, Central Africa and other continental sub regions, the report indicates.
With regard to the geographical proximity and interdependence between Juba and EAC Partner States – the report says, the South Sudan shares borders with Kenya and Uganda.
“There is a sense of belonging and attachment to EAC socially, historically, culturally and geographically,” reads the EAC report.
On interdependence with EAC member states, the Juba has got good working relationships with them and cooperation programmes at bilateral level.
Most of the policies and strategies have borrowed substantially from the individual EAC Partner States, the report indicates, adding that in some cases, Memorandum of understanding (MoUs) with EAC Partner State institutions exist.
With regard to South Sudan’s readiness to join the EAC Customs Union and the Common Market – is still uncertain.
Though institutions relating to finance, trade and macro-economic planning have been established, but EAC experts say, however, some of the institutions are operational while others are nascent or not yet operational.
For instance, so far there is no revenue authority in place and the existing directorate of Customs is still weak in terms of capacity, automation and implementation of international instruments.
However, there are some institutions established by law, which are yet to be operationalized such as Investment Authority and National Bureau of Standards, among others.
The nascence of the institutions of the economic sector may impact on the momentum and speed of the EAC integration process stages namely the EAC Customs Union, Common Market and Monetary Union.
Analysts say, the rational is that these new applicants,
when admitted, will expand the regional market, build a bigger bargaining voice
on international trade issues as well as introduce synergies to promote peace
and stability in this sometimes volatile region.
Indeed all that sounds good, but the EAC is currently
suffering from inertia and mere admission of new members will not bring about
positive change the people so desperately need to enjoy the benefits that come
with integration.
In fact one gets a feeling that the community has hit a dead
end whereby expanding membership comes with no added advantage, but rather
excess baggage that will turn it into just a bigger talking club.
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